Video Blackjack Strategy Chart
There are different theories regarding the origin of blackjack. Despite this, however, the game has hit different countries around the world by storm. Blackjack is one of the most sought after card games in the industry, available across both online and land-based casinos.
- Free Printable Blackjack Strategy Chart
- Blackjack Basic Strategy Printable Chart
- Video Blackjack Strategy Chart Free
- How To Play Perfect Blackjack
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Blackjack’s fast-paced gameplay and massive winning opportunities – especially when using a blackjack strategy – is what draws more players to it.
As you play blackjack, your main goal, like the majority of other online casino games, is to help you win! And while the majority of the other online casino games are left to chance, blackjack stands out. With a good blackjack strategy guide, it’s easy to greatly reduce the house edge and increase your winning opportunities.
We’ve included several online blackjack strategies, explaining each one of them in detail. Our main objective is to ensure that even the newest of gamers can play like professionals. The strategies include:
- Blackjack basic strategy
- Blackjack strategy chart
- The famous blackjack card counting strategy
- Martingale blackjack strategy
- Splitting and doubling down
The strategies above can be implemented at either land-based or online casinos. It may take some time and practice for you to fully execute them with perfection. Also, it’s necessary to know the basic blackjack rules before using any strategies.
- Want more knowledge on casino game strategies? Find out in our Best Roulette Strategies article.
Blackjack Basic Strategy
Before we look into the more complicated strategies, it’s important to review some basic ones. These are what we’d like to refer to as industry standards, as they are widely used by players worldwide:
- If the first two cards give you a hand value of 16, it’s best you surrender
- Remember when to split a hand
- Know when to double a hard hand
- See what is the right time to hit
Blackjack Strategy Chart
Blackjack strategy chart might be a little confusing at first. As we’ve already stated, these strategies take time but with practice every day, you’ll soon be playing like a pro. In fact, after using this blackjack strategy chart, you’ll start observing a pattern, linking the gameplay with certain parts of the chart.
A small blackjack strategy chart will help the players decide when to split, stand or double down.
Include Blackjack Strategy Chart in your Blog
Make sure to use the embed code below to include this strategy chart in your blog post:
Using the Strategy Chart for Blackjack in Four Easy To Follow Steps>
- Look at the dealer’s up card value and that of your hand.
- On the blackjack table, identify the cells where these two values coincide.
- Use the keys at the bottom of the blackjack strategy chart to determine the move you should make.
*Note the blackjack strategy chart is not a sure way of winning. It only represents the best course of action that you should take as you play blackjack. Once you’ve familiarized yourself with the ins and outs of the blackjack strategy chart, you’ll realize you are winning more often!
In some instances, it’s best you combine the use of this strategy chart for blackjack with a blackjack hand calculator. This is meant to give you a quantifiable amount that you stand to lose at any particular instance.
Card Counting Strategy
Card counting is perhaps one of the most known forms of blackjack strategy card. So popular is Blackjack card counting that it’s banned across most of the land-based casinos across the world. The majority of people, especially the newbies, believe that it’s sophisticated. However, all one needs to do is practise it a few times to remember it.
Casinos, both the land-based and online ones, have ways of making sure you don’t win at the tables. At the end of it all, they are a business and all they want is to maximize the profits. And in order to render or make card counting blackjack strategy difficult, they are adding multiple decks to the game.
But despite the number of decks they add to their blackjack games, with card counting, you can always win. What you, however, need to remember is you should always factor in the house edge before making any move. You also need to know you’ll have to learn blackjack strategy and perfect it by practicing it severally. You won’t just execute it perfectly from the get-go, but continuous practice will help you get it right and simplify the whole process.
In order to learn the blackjack strategy, you’ll have to follow these three steps below.
How Do You Count Cards In Blackjack
Step 1: You’ll have to assign different cards categories to different values. The first category is the group 2-6. The second category is the group 7-9 and the last category is the group 10-A (high-value cards). As they appear, you’ll have to assign them the following values.
- Group 2-6: Assign them +1
- Group 7-9: Assign them 0
- The 10-A group: Assign them -1
Step 2: This step involves accounting for the cards. You’ll have to keep a total based on the cards drawn by the dealer and the player
Step 3: The last step is referred to as True Count (Doing the actual card counting). To do this, you’ll have to number the decks involved in dealing. They’ll tell you the best time to raise a bet as well as give you an indication of when the dealer will cards in your favour.
Should you need more info on how card counting in blackjack works, here’s Mike Aponte of the famous MIT Blackjack team breaking it down:
If you require more information on counting cards when playing against dealers online, check out our article on counting cards at live casinos.
A More Conservative Blackjack Strategy Guide
If the strategy above seems to be a little more overwhelming to you, then you can always try out the more conservative blackjack gambling strategy. This is especially very important and easy to use for those of you looking to try out blackjack. You can execute it as you try to build your bankroll gradually instead of doing it all at once.
The whole procedure involves staking small amounts while taking fewer risks, being very keen on when to surrender, hit or stand.
We know it might be very boring to do this, especially if you are a thrill seeker searching for the elusive once-in-a-lifetime win. However, over an extended period of time, this blackjack gambling strategy will ease you in with the game, enabling you to understand both the rules and the strategy.
Without wasting much time, let’s get down to these two popular conservative blackjack gambling strategy.
Martingale Blackjack Gambling Strategy
The martingale blackjack gambling strategy is the least conservative form of blackjack strategy, while a different form of the same strategy is used in roulette. It dictates that your bet is doubled every time you lose your bet. Should you lose the bet again, you double it again. This continues until you lock in a win.
It’s not only a crazy strategy, but it’s also a risky one, as you can easily get your bankroll depleted within no time, especially if you are staking huge sums of money. However, once you land a win, you’ll not only recover all the amount that you’ve staked over time, but you’ll also be able to lock in a win equivalent to the initial amount you’d wagered.
For instance:
- Your initial stake is €50 – result; lose
- According to the Martingale gambling strategy, your next stake should be €100 – result; lose
- On the third stake, it should be €200 – result; lose
- On the fourth stake, it should be €400 – result; win
When you do your calculation, amount lost = €(50+100+200) = €350.
Amount won = €400.
Net Profit = €400 – €350 = €50 (which is equivalent to your initial €50 wager).
1-3-2-6 Strategy
The 1-3-2-6 blackjack strategy is slightly less risky than the outgoing strategy. It has found popularity among some of the professional blackjack players because it offers a much better way of managing funds. It’s a systematic form of betting and usually requires you to follow the trail above after your initial win. For instance:
- The first bet is equivalent to €100. If it results in a win, continue to the second bet.
- On your second bet, wager €300.
- If you won the previous bet, wager €200 on your third bet.
- On your fourth bet, wager €600, if the previous was won.
- If you won, wager €100 on the fifth bet.
As soon as you’ve recorded the loss, you are required to go back to the initial wager of €100 and start all over again until you record a win.
*The 1-3-2-6 blackjack strategy is highly dependent on the luck of the draw more than any other strategies listed above. Yet despite this, it’s the best way of keeping track of the bets you make, hence enabling you to play for longer.
Splitting and Doubling Down Blackjack Game Strategy
Splitting and doubling down are some of the most common actions taken while playing the game of blackjack.
- In the simplest definition, splitting means you are simply ‘splitting’ a hand with a pair into two new hands. The new hand will require you to stake a hand that’s equivalent to the first hand, which in turn doubles your winning chances.
- In some instances, you can opt to double down your initial wager. Once you’ve doubled down your bet, you’ll be dealt one more card after which you are required to stand. Doubling down is usually highly recommended, especially when you know you have a strong hand over the dealer.
When Is The Best Time To Split or Double Down?
Splitting and doubling down Blackjack game strategy is meant to tell you when is the right time to hit or stand. This section of the blackjack strategy guide is to highlight this!
When you’ve been dealt a pair of Aces, the best move is to split irrespective of the situation. It’s the blackjack community consensus that it’s the most effective way of playing a split hand. Generally, you can split as many times as possible. However, there are online casinos that limit the number of times you can split a hand.
If you’ve been dealt a pair of 8s, you should split the hand automatically. This is the best move because a score of 16 is a very weak hand, especially when you’ll be coming up against the dealer’s strong hand. Therefore, instead of hitting and eventually busting, split the pair and play it as new hands. This is the best strategy!
The only time you can split a pair of 7s, 3s or 2s, is when you the dealer’s up-card is 7. Any other card is too risky and you should avoid it at all costs!
Unless this is your first time playing online blackjack, it should be common sense that splitting a pair of 10s is a suicidal move. Having a hand of 20 is a risky starting point unless you are 100% certain that the next cards to be dealt with will be low-value cards. Instead of splitting a pair of 10s, always stand!
In short:
- Never split a pair of 6s, 5s or 4s
- Never split a pair of 10s and 9s, not unless the dealer’s hand is a 3 or 2
- Only split 7s, 3s, and 2s when observing the soft 17 rule
- You can split and re-split 8s
- Never hesitate to split aces
Check out our splitting in blackjack guide to find out more about it!
When Is The Right Time To Double Down?
Doubling down in blackjack is dependent on two factors:
- The dealer’s up-card
- The value of your two cards
If the value of your hand is either 11 or 10, then you should double down. However, if the dealer’s up-card is a 10 or 9, then you should proceed and hit as normal
If the dealer’s up-card is a low-value card such as a 4, 3 or 2, then doubling down is the best move if you also happen to be having a low-value card. Why? There’s a high chance that the dealer will bust with such cards
You should never double down if your hand value is anything above 11. Should you choose to double down and bust, it will be equivalent to losing twice your bet
What’s The Best Starting Point
All you’ve read can be a little overwhelming, more so if you are new to playing this beautiful card game. So, before you can start playing the game, it’s important you are a little bit comfortable with the blackjack numbers as well as familiarizing yourself with the blackjack strategy chart above. After that, you can always proceed and play blackjack online at recommended online casinos.
Why should you learn how to play blackjack strategy at the online casinos? Well, in addition to playing the majority of the blackjack games for free, you can also receive help whenever you need it. The majority of the online casinos recommended are also optimized fully for mobile play, which means you can always take the game with you whenever you feel like.
Once you are full of confidence and wouldn’t mind switching the play, you can always play the real money live blackjack games. The live dealer platform is energetic, fun and full of players with different characters. When playing the game here, and you implement the best blackjack strategy you’ve perfected, there are very fewer chances you won’t win!
Closing Thoughts on Blackjack Strategy
Above all, it’s important to remind you that there are several other blackjack strategies online. However, regardless of the strategy chart for blackjack you choose, the MOST IMPORTANT rule is to have clear limits from the get-go. This ensures you won’t lose all your bankroll in one sitting (check out our other bankroll management tips).
Also, while the strategies above are sure to improve your blackjack play online, sadly, there isn’t a sure way of winning at every hand that you play. This is because, from the start, the odds are stacked against you all due to the dealer’s experience, the number of decks employed and the casino’s edge.
If you’ve read this far, we would like to believe that the information listed above is sufficient enough to see you off on your quest to becoming a proficient blackjack player.
All the best!
Want to use these strategies straight away? Make sure to play online Blackjack games on CasinoChan to practice the chart above and win!
Michael Shackleford: Hi, this is Mike with the Wizard of Odds. The purpose of this video is to create the blackjack basic strategy from scratch in Excel starting with just a blank spreadsheet.
Why am I doing this? Because I'm getting a little tired of hearing dealers say that the basic strategy is a myth, that it was created by Ed Thorp, Beat the Dealer fame back in 1962 on an old UNIVAC computer or whatever and he must've made a mistake somewhere and this mistake has been repeated for decades by other gambling writers who never once thought to confirm his work and we've all just been repeating his work like parrots.
Number one I'd like to correct something is actually, Ed Thorp was not the first person to publish the basic strategy. There were four guys in the army in the 50s who did it before him and published it in the American Statistical Journal. However, Ed Thorp was the first one to write a book about it including addressing card counting and broke all kinds of new ground in the game.
I might also add that blackjack analysis has been repeated over and over by lots of gambling writers, including myself, and we all-- all the legitimate writers basically agree with each other.
Nevertheless, dealers will continue to say, 'Well, I've seen players play by the book and lose lots of times.' Well, of course, it's a game of luck and bad players who don't follow the basic strategy lose, too. But, as I always say, the more ridiculous a belief is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held, but let's quit talking and actually show you the basic strategy starting from nothing.
I'm going to use an assumption of an infinite number of decks of cards for the sake of simplicity. The mathematics of the game are not tremendously different between eight decks and an infinite number of decks. The basic strategy will be different in a couple borderline plays as we'll see later. But let's jump in, shall we?
Let's call the first sheet in the spreadsheet, 'the dealer sheet.' This is going to show the probability of every possible outcome for the dealer according to all possible 10 up cards.
So, one of these things are going to happen to the dealer; he could bust, he could end up with 17, 18, 19, 20, or 21, and we're going to do this by American rules where the dealer peeks for blackjack and he exposes it, if he doesn't-- if he has it otherwise, the player is not drawing dead to a handy can't be. We will factor in the blackjacks later on in another video where I show you how to calculate the house advantage.
There's 10 possible up cards the dealer can have, which we'll put across the first row. This table up here will represent the possible probabilities under the American rules. Again, it's a little tricky because in the-- again, because of this peeking rule. So, let's do it underneath here according to the European rule where the dealer doesn't peek for a blackjack and let's consider all the possible totals all the way up to 31 which will make-- doing the spreadsheet a little bit easier and we also will look at the soft totals and we'll start there from a 12, also up to a 31. What's a soft 31, you might ask? That's the same thing as a hard 21. For a soft 22 or more, just subtract 10 and it's the same thing as a hard total.
All right, if the dealer has a-- that's the 17. There's a 100% chance he will end up with a 17 because he's going to stop and same thing with an 18 through a 21. The dealer ends up with a 22 or more. There's a 100% chance he's going to bust.
With the soft hands, let's assume the rule that the dealer stands on a soft 17. We can do the same thing there. With a soft 22, that's going to be the same thing as a hard 12.
Okay, let's start with looking at what is the probability of the dealer getting a 17 if he starts with a two? Well, the next card could bring him up to a four all the way up to an 11, each with equal chance. There's 4 chances he could end up with a 12 because there's four ranks in the deck that are 10 points, and one chance he could get to a soft 13. We divide by 13 because there's 13 ranks. This same formula is going to work all the way up to 16 for all the other possible totals.
Now, let's work on the soft hands. The dealer starts with-- hit's a soft 12. He could end up with a 13 up to a 21 each with equal chance, and four chances at a 22, copying paste that down.
Let's take the total to make sure it adds up to one. Good, it does. Let's make sure it does for all the other outcomes. Looks good so far.
All right, now, let's think about the American rules. Blackjack is the same, all other things being equal in the US and Europe if the dealer's showing a two through nine because there's no chance a dealer can have a blackjack, so we can just refer to the European numbers for two through nine.
Let me add another row here for the total. For the 10 and the ace, there's no chance the dealer has a blackjack because he already peeked for it and again, we'll adjust for that later on when we figure out the house edge. But if the dealer has a 10 showing and when he hits that, that could leave him with a 12 up through a 19, each with one chance and four chances of the 20, and we divide it by 12 because there's 12 ranks, not counting the ace. Similar kind of logic with the ace, but there you can end up with a soft 12 up to a soft 20 and divide by 9, because there's only nine ranks that won't give them a blackjack.
There are all your dealer probabilities. Let's save this before I forget. We'll just call this 'basic strategy.' Now, we're ready to start talking about the player. Let's make our next sheet called 'stand.' This is going to show the players expected value of standing for any possible scenario.
Let's do everything by the 10-possible dealer up cards. Let's do all the player sheets according to having anywhere from a hard four all the way to 31 and a soft 12 all the way to 31.
Let me make the screen a little bigger for you. I hope that helps so you can see what I'm doing. All right. What if the dealer stands on a four against a two? The only way he's going to win is if the dealer busts. His expected value is the probability of the dealer busting minus the probability of anything else happening.
So, he can expect to lose by standing on a four against a two of about 29.3% of his bet. That's the same number for standing on everything all the way through a 16 because a 16 is no better than a four or a zero.
Things start to get better with a 17 because now, a 17 is going to turn from a loss to a push, so the expected value there is the probability of the dealer busting minus the probability of an 18 through a 21. We can ignore the dealer getting a 17 because that's going to result in a push with a player. Eighteen, expected value is the probability of the bust or 17 minus the probability of a 19 to21.
With a 19, expected value is the probability of a dealer having a bust 17 or 18 minus a 20 or 21. With a 20, it's a bust through a 19 minus a 21 and with a 21, it's anything except another 21 which would be a push.
So, the expected value of a 17 against a two is a expected loss of about 15.3% of the bet; with an 18, it's positive 12.2; with a 19, positive 38.6; with a 20, positive 64.0% and with a 21, positive 80.2%. If the dealer gets to 22 or more, these loss's expected value is negative one.
So, let's copy and paste that all over through to an ace. Now, with the soft totals, it doesn't help the player if it's soft if he's just going to stand on it. We can just refer to the hard totals. Soft 22 is the same thing as a soft 12 and expected value for standing. There's our expected values of if the player stands.
Let's talk about hitting next. We'll make a sheet called 'hit' and let's also make one called 'HS' which will represent the expected value of the better choice between hitting and standing because the player should make the choice with the higher expected value at every stage of the game. Let's zoom this so you can see it better.
Okay. For the hit stand sheet, at any given stage of the game, the expected value is going to be the higher of the expected value for that state between hitting and standing. We're going to need to reference that sheet when we talk about hitting because after the player hits, he can still keep hitting.
So, if the player hits a hard four against the two for example, he might be left with anywhere from a six through a 13, each with equal chance, four chances at a 14 and one chance at a soft 15 and divide it by 13 and just copy and paste.
The player hits a 21, he's going to bust, so his expected value is negative one, or if the player hits a soft 12, well, then he can have anywhere from a soft 13 to 21, four chances at the soft 22 which is the same thing as a 12, and again, divide by 13. Copy and paste that down through 21. As usual, a soft 22 is the same thing as a 12, so we can refer to the hard totals there.
So, there's our expected values for hitting. Now, let's see what the basic strategy looks like if the player is only limited to hitting and standing which is the case with three or more cards. If this greater expected value is the same as standing, let's put an S, otherwise an H for hitting.
Now, let's color that in. Blackjack writers seem to always use red for hitting, I think it comes from Lawrence Revere, and yellow for standing. Here's what it looks like. Take it from me, this is correct. Any legitimate blackjack book will show you this is the correct strategy for hitting and standing for any possible situation.
Let's talk about doubling next. Let's make a new sheet called 'double.' Let's make this bigger for you again. The doubling sheet is going to be based on the stand sheet, because when you double, you get one card only. There's no option to hit after that.
So, if the player doubles on a four against the two, he could end up with a six through a 13 or four chances at a 14 or a soft 15 and we divide it by 13. Let's multiply all this by two because now, the player asked to double his bet. We can simply copy that down through the 11. With the 12, it gets a little bit different because now the ace is going to count as-- it must count as a one.
So, we just adjust the formula a little bit like that. There are all your expected values for doubling for hard totals. Now, let's do it for the soft totals, start out by with the two because again, the player's doubling his bet.
If the player starts with a soft 12, his next card could give him anywhere from a soft 13 through 21, and four chances at a soft 22, which, again, is the same thing as a hard 12 and divided by 13. A soft 22 is again the same thing as a hard 12, so there's all your expected values for doubling.
Now, let's make a sheet. We'll call it 'HSD' for Hit Stand Double, which is going to represent the expected value of the best choice between hitting, standing, and doubling. So, this is going to be the maximum of hitting, standing, and doubling.
Let's adjust this little sheet here, 'the basic strategy,' to show the best choice between hitting, standing, and doubling. Voila, and let's color all this in-- color in all the doubling squares blue because everyone seems to use blue for doubling.
Here's our basic strategy for doubling. Again, take it from me, you'll see this same chart in any legitimate blackjack book, and here it is for the soft totals. Now, here are the couple differences between four to eight decks and infinite decks. These are two very borderline situations.
With four to eight decks, you're also going to double a soft 15 against a four and you're going to double a soft 13 against a five. Again, the only reason these are different is because of the infinite decks. There, we have doubling.
Next, let's talk about surrendering. Surrendering is really easy. Let's call this 'SUR' for surrender. The expected value of surrendering-- sorry, let me make this bigger for you again. It keeps changing. The expected value of surrendering is negative 0.5 for any situation where the player hasn't busted yet, because the player, by definition of the game, is losing half his bet and he doesn't have to play his cards out.
Let's make another sheet. We'll call this one 'HSDR,' that's going to represent the maximum expected value between hitting, standing, doubling, and surrendering. Why do we use an R for surrender? Because S was already taken for standing. Why does this zoom keep changing?
All right. So, the expected value between all those four choices is the maximum of hitting, standing, doubling, and-- oops. Surrendering. You can see right here, it's only optimal to surrender if the player has a 16 and the dealer is showing a 9, 10, or ace, or a 15 against the dealer 10. Let's update our chart here. I hope my wife gets that. I guess she's not. I hope it wasn't too important. There you see the four surrenders that I just set.
Finally, let's talk about splitting. The player could have a pair of anything from a two through 10s or two aces. Okay, what's the expected value if the player splits a pair of twos against a two? Well, first, let's put a two because the player has a double as a bet, and after splitting that, each hand could be anything. After he hits each one, it could be anywhere from a four through an 11, four chances at the 12, and one chance at a soft 13.
By the way, I am assuming that the player may only split once, no re-splitting, just to keep things simple. We copy and paste that. Things are different with aces. With aces, we're going to go to the stand sheet because the way blackjack is played is you only get one card after splitting aces.
So, after splitting an ace with each ace, you could have it anywhere from a 12 through 20 and four chances of the 21. Here's your expected values for splitting. Well, let's see when those are better than the best alternative.
Free Printable Blackjack Strategy Chart
Down here, let's look at the better value between, for example, with a pair of twos against the two, the higher of the splitting expected value or a hard four. With a three, it's going to be greater of the expected value of splitting the threes or a hard six, so, we're going to have to alternate the rows in the standing sheet.
For the pair of twos, we looked at cell B2 in the sheet for hitting, standing, or doubling. For a pair of threes, we're going to look at cell B4; for the fours, D6; for the fives, B8; and so on.
Okay. With aces, it's going to be the greater of splitting the aces or playing it out as a soft 12. Copy and paste it for the other dealer up cards. Now, let's make a little chart to show when it's best to split.
So, if the best expected value equals the splitting expected value, we'll put a Y for 'Yes, you should split,' otherwise put a, 'No.' Copy and paste that down and let's color it in.
If it's equal to a Y for 'Yes, we should split,' let's use green. Here, we have the splitting basic strategy. Take it from me, look in any blackjack book and it's going to tell you that you should split in these situations with four or more decks or 48 decks and the dealer standing on a soft 17.
So, there's your basic strategy. Here's this basic strategy for splitting. Here's a basic strategy for all your hard totals and your soft totals. Again, all that starting from just a blank spreadsheet. It wasn't all that complicated. I hope you understood this. I'm going to put this spreadsheet in Google Documents so you can look at it more closely on your own if you want to.
In my next video, I'm going to expand on this one to show you how we go from all these expected values to the actual house advantage of the game.
Thank you and I hope that wasn't too boring.
Michael Shackleford: Hi, this is Mike with the Wizard of Odds. The purpose of this video is to create the blackjack basic strategy from scratch in Excel starting with just a blank spreadsheet.
Why am I doing this? Because I'm getting a little tired of hearing dealers say that the basic strategy is a myth, that it was created by Ed Thorp, Beat the Dealer fame back in 1962 on an old UNIVAC computer or whatever and he must've made a mistake somewhere and this mistake has been repeated for decades by other gambling writers who never once thought to confirm his work and we've all just been repeating his work like parrots.
Number one I'd like to correct something is actually, Ed Thorp was not the first person to publish the basic strategy. There were four guys in the army in the 50s who did it before him and published it in the American Statistical Journal. However, Ed Thorp was the first one to write a book about it including addressing card counting and broke all kinds of new ground in the game.
I might also add that blackjack analysis has been repeated over and over by lots of gambling writers, including myself, and we all-- all the legitimate writers basically agree with each other.
Nevertheless, dealers will continue to say, 'Well, I've seen players play by the book and lose lots of times.' Well, of course, it's a game of luck and bad players who don't follow the basic strategy lose, too. But, as I always say, the more ridiculous a belief is, the more tenaciously it tends to be held, but let's quit talking and actually show you the basic strategy starting from nothing.
I'm going to use an assumption of an infinite number of decks of cards for the sake of simplicity. The mathematics of the game are not tremendously different between eight decks and an infinite number of decks. The basic strategy will be different in a couple borderline plays as we'll see later. But let's jump in, shall we?
Let's call the first sheet in the spreadsheet, 'the dealer sheet.' This is going to show the probability of every possible outcome for the dealer according to all possible 10 up cards.
So, one of these things are going to happen to the dealer; he could bust, he could end up with 17, 18, 19, 20, or 21, and we're going to do this by American rules where the dealer peeks for blackjack and he exposes it, if he doesn't-- if he has it otherwise, the player is not drawing dead to a handy can't be. We will factor in the blackjacks later on in another video where I show you how to calculate the house advantage.
There's 10 possible up cards the dealer can have, which we'll put across the first row. This table up here will represent the possible probabilities under the American rules. Again, it's a little tricky because in the-- again, because of this peeking rule. So, let's do it underneath here according to the European rule where the dealer doesn't peek for a blackjack and let's consider all the possible totals all the way up to 31 which will make-- doing the spreadsheet a little bit easier and we also will look at the soft totals and we'll start there from a 12, also up to a 31. What's a soft 31, you might ask? That's the same thing as a hard 21. For a soft 22 or more, just subtract 10 and it's the same thing as a hard total.
All right, if the dealer has a-- that's the 17. There's a 100% chance he will end up with a 17 because he's going to stop and same thing with an 18 through a 21. The dealer ends up with a 22 or more. There's a 100% chance he's going to bust.
With the soft hands, let's assume the rule that the dealer stands on a soft 17. We can do the same thing there. With a soft 22, that's going to be the same thing as a hard 12.
Okay, let's start with looking at what is the probability of the dealer getting a 17 if he starts with a two? Well, the next card could bring him up to a four all the way up to an 11, each with equal chance. There's 4 chances he could end up with a 12 because there's four ranks in the deck that are 10 points, and one chance he could get to a soft 13. We divide by 13 because there's 13 ranks. This same formula is going to work all the way up to 16 for all the other possible totals.
Blackjack Basic Strategy Printable Chart
Now, let's work on the soft hands. The dealer starts with-- hit's a soft 12. He could end up with a 13 up to a 21 each with equal chance, and four chances at a 22, copying paste that down.
Let's take the total to make sure it adds up to one. Good, it does. Let's make sure it does for all the other outcomes. Looks good so far.
All right, now, let's think about the American rules. Blackjack is the same, all other things being equal in the US and Europe if the dealer's showing a two through nine because there's no chance a dealer can have a blackjack, so we can just refer to the European numbers for two through nine.
Let me add another row here for the total. For the 10 and the ace, there's no chance the dealer has a blackjack because he already peeked for it and again, we'll adjust for that later on when we figure out the house edge. But if the dealer has a 10 showing and when he hits that, that could leave him with a 12 up through a 19, each with one chance and four chances of the 20, and we divide it by 12 because there's 12 ranks, not counting the ace. Similar kind of logic with the ace, but there you can end up with a soft 12 up to a soft 20 and divide by 9, because there's only nine ranks that won't give them a blackjack.
There are all your dealer probabilities. Let's save this before I forget. We'll just call this 'basic strategy.' Now, we're ready to start talking about the player. Let's make our next sheet called 'stand.' This is going to show the players expected value of standing for any possible scenario.
Let's do everything by the 10-possible dealer up cards. Let's do all the player sheets according to having anywhere from a hard four all the way to 31 and a soft 12 all the way to 31.
Let me make the screen a little bigger for you. I hope that helps so you can see what I'm doing. All right. What if the dealer stands on a four against a two? The only way he's going to win is if the dealer busts. His expected value is the probability of the dealer busting minus the probability of anything else happening.
So, he can expect to lose by standing on a four against a two of about 29.3% of his bet. That's the same number for standing on everything all the way through a 16 because a 16 is no better than a four or a zero.
Things start to get better with a 17 because now, a 17 is going to turn from a loss to a push, so the expected value there is the probability of the dealer busting minus the probability of an 18 through a 21. We can ignore the dealer getting a 17 because that's going to result in a push with a player. Eighteen, expected value is the probability of the bust or 17 minus the probability of a 19 to21.
With a 19, expected value is the probability of a dealer having a bust 17 or 18 minus a 20 or 21. With a 20, it's a bust through a 19 minus a 21 and with a 21, it's anything except another 21 which would be a push.
So, the expected value of a 17 against a two is a expected loss of about 15.3% of the bet; with an 18, it's positive 12.2; with a 19, positive 38.6; with a 20, positive 64.0% and with a 21, positive 80.2%. If the dealer gets to 22 or more, these loss's expected value is negative one.
So, let's copy and paste that all over through to an ace. Now, with the soft totals, it doesn't help the player if it's soft if he's just going to stand on it. We can just refer to the hard totals. Soft 22 is the same thing as a soft 12 and expected value for standing. There's our expected values of if the player stands.
Let's talk about hitting next. We'll make a sheet called 'hit' and let's also make one called 'HS' which will represent the expected value of the better choice between hitting and standing because the player should make the choice with the higher expected value at every stage of the game. Let's zoom this so you can see it better.
Okay. For the hit stand sheet, at any given stage of the game, the expected value is going to be the higher of the expected value for that state between hitting and standing. We're going to need to reference that sheet when we talk about hitting because after the player hits, he can still keep hitting.
So, if the player hits a hard four against the two for example, he might be left with anywhere from a six through a 13, each with equal chance, four chances at a 14 and one chance at a soft 15 and divide it by 13 and just copy and paste.
The player hits a 21, he's going to bust, so his expected value is negative one, or if the player hits a soft 12, well, then he can have anywhere from a soft 13 to 21, four chances at the soft 22 which is the same thing as a 12, and again, divide by 13. Copy and paste that down through 21. As usual, a soft 22 is the same thing as a 12, so we can refer to the hard totals there.
So, there's our expected values for hitting. Now, let's see what the basic strategy looks like if the player is only limited to hitting and standing which is the case with three or more cards. If this greater expected value is the same as standing, let's put an S, otherwise an H for hitting.
Now, let's color that in. Blackjack writers seem to always use red for hitting, I think it comes from Lawrence Revere, and yellow for standing. Here's what it looks like. Take it from me, this is correct. Any legitimate blackjack book will show you this is the correct strategy for hitting and standing for any possible situation.
Let's talk about doubling next. Let's make a new sheet called 'double.' Let's make this bigger for you again. The doubling sheet is going to be based on the stand sheet, because when you double, you get one card only. There's no option to hit after that.
So, if the player doubles on a four against the two, he could end up with a six through a 13 or four chances at a 14 or a soft 15 and we divide it by 13. Let's multiply all this by two because now, the player asked to double his bet. We can simply copy that down through the 11. With the 12, it gets a little bit different because now the ace is going to count as-- it must count as a one.
So, we just adjust the formula a little bit like that. There are all your expected values for doubling for hard totals. Now, let's do it for the soft totals, start out by with the two because again, the player's doubling his bet.
If the player starts with a soft 12, his next card could give him anywhere from a soft 13 through 21, and four chances at a soft 22, which, again, is the same thing as a hard 12 and divided by 13. A soft 22 is again the same thing as a hard 12, so there's all your expected values for doubling.
Now, let's make a sheet. We'll call it 'HSD' for Hit Stand Double, which is going to represent the expected value of the best choice between hitting, standing, and doubling. So, this is going to be the maximum of hitting, standing, and doubling.
Let's adjust this little sheet here, 'the basic strategy,' to show the best choice between hitting, standing, and doubling. Voila, and let's color all this in-- color in all the doubling squares blue because everyone seems to use blue for doubling.
Here's our basic strategy for doubling. Again, take it from me, you'll see this same chart in any legitimate blackjack book, and here it is for the soft totals. Now, here are the couple differences between four to eight decks and infinite decks. These are two very borderline situations.
With four to eight decks, you're also going to double a soft 15 against a four and you're going to double a soft 13 against a five. Again, the only reason these are different is because of the infinite decks. There, we have doubling.
Next, let's talk about surrendering. Surrendering is really easy. Let's call this 'SUR' for surrender. The expected value of surrendering-- sorry, let me make this bigger for you again. It keeps changing. The expected value of surrendering is negative 0.5 for any situation where the player hasn't busted yet, because the player, by definition of the game, is losing half his bet and he doesn't have to play his cards out.
Let's make another sheet. We'll call this one 'HSDR,' that's going to represent the maximum expected value between hitting, standing, doubling, and surrendering. Why do we use an R for surrender? Because S was already taken for standing. Why does this zoom keep changing?
All right. So, the expected value between all those four choices is the maximum of hitting, standing, doubling, and-- oops. Surrendering. You can see right here, it's only optimal to surrender if the player has a 16 and the dealer is showing a 9, 10, or ace, or a 15 against the dealer 10. Let's update our chart here. I hope my wife gets that. I guess she's not. I hope it wasn't too important. There you see the four surrenders that I just set.
Finally, let's talk about splitting. The player could have a pair of anything from a two through 10s or two aces. Okay, what's the expected value if the player splits a pair of twos against a two? Well, first, let's put a two because the player has a double as a bet, and after splitting that, each hand could be anything. After he hits each one, it could be anywhere from a four through an 11, four chances at the 12, and one chance at a soft 13.
By the way, I am assuming that the player may only split once, no re-splitting, just to keep things simple. We copy and paste that. Things are different with aces. With aces, we're going to go to the stand sheet because the way blackjack is played is you only get one card after splitting aces.
So, after splitting an ace with each ace, you could have it anywhere from a 12 through 20 and four chances of the 21. Here's your expected values for splitting. Well, let's see when those are better than the best alternative.
Down here, let's look at the better value between, for example, with a pair of twos against the two, the higher of the splitting expected value or a hard four. With a three, it's going to be greater of the expected value of splitting the threes or a hard six, so, we're going to have to alternate the rows in the standing sheet.
For the pair of twos, we looked at cell B2 in the sheet for hitting, standing, or doubling. For a pair of threes, we're going to look at cell B4; for the fours, D6; for the fives, B8; and so on.
Video Blackjack Strategy Chart Free
Okay. With aces, it's going to be the greater of splitting the aces or playing it out as a soft 12. Copy and paste it for the other dealer up cards. Now, let's make a little chart to show when it's best to split.
So, if the best expected value equals the splitting expected value, we'll put a Y for 'Yes, you should split,' otherwise put a, 'No.' Copy and paste that down and let's color it in.
If it's equal to a Y for 'Yes, we should split,' let's use green. Here, we have the splitting basic strategy. Take it from me, look in any blackjack book and it's going to tell you that you should split in these situations with four or more decks or 48 decks and the dealer standing on a soft 17.
So, there's your basic strategy. Here's this basic strategy for splitting. Here's a basic strategy for all your hard totals and your soft totals. Again, all that starting from just a blank spreadsheet. It wasn't all that complicated. I hope you understood this. I'm going to put this spreadsheet in Google Documents so you can look at it more closely on your own if you want to.
In my next video, I'm going to expand on this one to show you how we go from all these expected values to the actual house advantage of the game.
How To Play Perfect Blackjack
Thank you and I hope that wasn't too boring.